Farkle strategy: when to bank and when to roll on

The short answer

Bank when the points you would lose by farkling outweigh the points you expect to gain by rolling. In practice that means: always roll six dice, almost always roll five, usually roll four, and be very reluctant to roll three or fewer once your turn is worth a few hundred points. The exact line depends on how many dice you have left and how much is at stake, and the two tables below put numbers on it. Everything else in this guide is about the exceptions: hot dice, house rules, and the end of the game, when the arithmetic changes because a small bank no longer helps you.

This guide assumes the traditional rules and scoring in the rules and scoring guide.

The odds of farkling

The chance that a roll scores nothing depends only on how many dice you throw. Under the standard chart, where 1s, 5s and three of a kind score, the figures are:

Two things jump out. Six dice are nearly safe, which is why you should always roll them, including on hot dice. And the risk roughly doubles every time you go from three dice to two and from two to one. A single die is a coin you lose two times in three.

Expected value in plain words

Suppose your turn is worth 400 and you have three dice left. Rolling them farkles about 28% of the time, which loses the 400: an expected cost of roughly 110 points. The other 72% of the time you score, on average somewhere around 100 to 130 points, with the occasional triple pushing that up. The expected gain from that roll is therefore roughly equal to the expected loss, and you are near the break-even point. With 200 in hand and the same three dice, the expected loss is about 55 and the roll is clearly worth taking. With 800, the loss is about 220 and it is clearly not.

You do not need to do the sum at the table. You need to remember that the cost of rolling grows with your turn total while the gain stays about the same, so every turn has a point where the answer flips from roll to bank, and that point comes earlier the fewer dice you have.

The 300 rule and its cousins

Farkle players compress that arithmetic into rules of thumb, and the most quoted is the 300 rule: once your turn is worth 300 or more and you are down to three dice, bank. Extended to every dice count, the rough thresholds look like this:

Notice that one die and two dice have similar thresholds despite one die being much riskier. That is because a scoring single die gives you hot dice, six fresh dice with your total intact, and that upside partly pays for the risk. With two dice, only one of the two scoring gets you nothing but a single die to roll next.

Hot-dice decisions

Hot dice means rolling six fresh dice with your turn total still at risk. The farkle chance is only 2–3%, so roll them; under most rule sets you have no choice anyway. The decision comes on the next roll. If the six dice give you, say, a single 1 and nothing else, you now have 100 more points and five dice, and the thresholds above apply again. Do not let the excitement of hot dice carry you into rolling three dice with 1,200 on the line. Each roll is its own decision, and the total behind it is the thing that changes.

End-game play when you are behind

Everything above assumes a long game in which points banked now are as good as points banked later. In the final round that is false. Once an opponent has crossed the target, you get one turn, and a banked 300 that leaves you short is worth exactly as much as a farkle: nothing.

So in the final round, work out the number you need, and roll until you have it. If you need 1,400 to overtake, banking 900 is a loss, so keep rolling even with two dice and a 28% chance of getting there. The same logic applies more gently earlier: when you are far behind and the leader is within a couple of turns of the target, take more risk than the thresholds suggest, because playing safe just loses slowly. When you are the leader in the same spot, do the opposite: bank small, keep the pressure on, and let them take the risks.

The opening threshold, where houses use one, has a similar effect on the first turns. If you cannot bank below 500, then a turn worth 350 with three dice is not a bank-or-roll choice at all; you must roll.

Two things that change in Piece of Cake

Piece of Cake plays Farkle with the traditional turn structure, so the reasoning here carries over, with two adjustments. The default table target is 4,000 rather than 10,000, which makes the game shorter and each big turn proportionally larger: a 1,500-point turn is nearly forty per cent of the target, so the final round arrives sooner and the play-from-behind advice above matters from early on. And the house rules are set per table: the target, an opening threshold, a final round, whether three pairs and two triplets score, and a penalty for three Farkles in a row. Check the table settings before deciding how aggressive to be, since a three-Farkle penalty in particular makes reckless rolling much more expensive.

The guides that sit next to this one are Gin Rummy strategy and Chess time controls.

Frequently asked questions

When should you bank in Farkle?

When the points you would lose by farkling outweigh what you expect to gain. As a rule of thumb: always roll six dice, roll five and four unless your turn is worth well over 1,000, bank three dice at around 300 to 400 or more, and bank two or one dice at around 250 or more.

What is the 300 rule in Farkle?

Bank once your turn is worth 300 or more and you are down to three dice. It is a rule of thumb that approximates the expected-value break-even point for three dice under standard scoring, and it is a good default for players who do not want to do arithmetic at the table.

Should you always roll hot dice?

Yes. Six dice farkle only 2–3% of the time and most rule sets require you to roll them anyway. Make a fresh decision after that roll based on how many dice remain and how much your turn is now worth.

Should you keep a 5 in Farkle?

Usually not, unless you are banking immediately. A 5 is worth 50 points but costs you a die, and an extra die is worth more than 50 points on the next roll. Set aside the minimum that scores and keep as many dice as you can.

Independent guide: the rules described here are the traditional versions of each game; where Piece of Cake plays a variant, the guide says so explicitly. TritonApps is not affiliated with any games publisher.